Engineering - Uncertainty

SOLV has undertaken over 70 projects to find the uncertainty of oil and gas allocation systems. In addition we have found uncertainty for over 100 meter stations using both ISO5168 RSS (Root Sum Square) and Monte Carlo Simulation methods. The company has extensive experience of all aspects of uncertainty in flow measurement.

Clients are primarily concerned with their financial exposure and need to determine the feasibility of a proposed development usually with a number of operational scenarios. We frequently undertake a study on behalf of the clients to justify a course of action internally and in presenting a case to field and pipeline partners, and regulatory authorities.

Martin Basil, Senior Flow Measurement Consultant with SOLV Ltd, pioneered the use of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to find the uncertainty of a measurement or system. MSC is used to deal with the complexity of allocation systems and some fluid calculations that cannot be easily analyzed using RSS methods. The most minor change to the allocation process required a rework of the entire analysis using conventional quadrature methods. With MCS it is only necessary to change the allocation equation for the uncertainty to be correctly propagated.

SOLV has been instrumental in commercializing the use of MCS and it is now acceptable for submission to the DECC (UK Department of Energy & Climate Change). MCS has been included in the next issue of ISO5168 which deals with uncertainty in fluid flow measurement.

As a result of lobbying by SOLV MCS has been included in a supplement to the ISO/ANSI “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement” also known as “The GUM”.

  • Analysis

  • Determine feasibility

  • Financial exposure

  • Justification

  • Operational scenarios

  • Uncertainty studies

Paper's and presentations on uncertainty based allocation can be downloaded here

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